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hkmaly

Story, Monday December 11, 2017

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14 hours ago, hkmaly said:
22 hours ago, ChronosCat said:

However, this is assuming they had the technology for cell phones but didn't invent them because there was already an easily available magical equivalent. It's possible the presence of easily available magic stunted technological growth centuries ago, and they simply don't have the tech base to make cell phones despite not having a similarly convenient magical means of communication.

Communication is quite important area of research. If there would be considerable limits or problems in using magic for communication, there would be no reason to stun technological growth in the area. Unless, of course, the reason would basically be that magic users are trying to keep monopoly through preventing ANY research and are very successful in it.

Communication more sophisticated than courier mail typically needs a significant amount of infrastructure (Radio transmission can be done with little to no infrastructure, but it still needs a base station for a clear long range signal) that takes time and money to set up and can be vulnerable to attack. That said, such suppression would require multinational cooperation, because if any nation didn't cooperate with suppressing technological research, it could gain a significant upper-hand against the nations that did suppress their technology. And going by history, nations with a significant advantage towards their neighbors typically will seek to conquer and/or exploit their neighbors, which means the other nations that suppressed their technology would either have to abandon the magic users' monopoly or suffer on the receiving end of conquest/exploitation.

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1 hour ago, Drasvin said:

Communication more sophisticated than courier mail typically needs a significant amount of infrastructure (Radio transmission can be done with little to no infrastructure, but it still needs a base station for a clear long range signal) that takes time and money to set up and can be vulnerable to attack. That said, such suppression would require multinational cooperation, because if any nation didn't cooperate with suppressing technological research, it could gain a significant upper-hand against the nations that did suppress their technology. And going by history, nations with a significant advantage towards their neighbors typically will seek to conquer and/or exploit their neighbors, which means the other nations that suppressed their technology would either have to abandon the magic users' monopoly or suffer on the receiving end of conquest/exploitation.

I've once seen a story a bit like that. Two nations, one suppressing the use of magic, the other suppressing science. They were constantly at war or at least at a very uneasy detente and smuggling was considered a big problem in both nations. By the governments, at least.

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17 hours ago, hkmaly said:

Communication is quite important area of research. If there would be considerable limits or problems in using magic for communication, there would be no reason to stun technological growth in the area. Unless, of course, the reason would basically be that magic users are trying to keep monopoly through preventing ANY research and are very successful in it.

My thinking is that in the 18th and 19th centuries, magic could do similar things to the inventions made in those centuries in our world, and as such many of those inventions were never made or never became well known. As a result of this the technological growth of this alternate world was stunted, and they're still decades or more away from developing the miniturized electronics required for cell phones (and PCs for that matter) - assuming anyone has thought to research such things at all.

For instance, if they already possessed a magical means of two-way audio & video communication (something which has to be set up in specific locations and cannot easily be moved, like say a pool with runes carved into its stone walls), they might not have invented the electric telegraph or land-line telephones. And if they could light their homes with magic lanterns instead of oil or gas based lanterns, there might not be any incentive to build an electrical grid. And so on.

...It occurs to me this is a lot of speculation built on the facts that we weren't told that Magus took Ashley's phone, and we haven't seen any modern technology in the brief flashbacks we've had to Magus world. I still stand by my claim that my scenario is possible, but knowing Dan it's more likely Magus world has modern tech and either Magus and Sirleck did take Ashley's phone and we don't know it yet, or they simply forgot. (We could even wind up with a scene of "I thought you took her phone!" "No, you were supposed to do that!")

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18 hours ago, chridd said:

Wabbit Season!

Ok, you got me, Doc.  It's wabbit season.  So, do you want to shoot me now, or wait till you get home?  <pregnant pause>

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18 hours ago, Drasvin said:

Communication more sophisticated than courier mail typically needs a significant amount of infrastructure

Actually, couriers needs quite a lot infrastructure on places where they change horses. Long-range communication ALWAYS needs infrastructure.

18 hours ago, Drasvin said:

that takes time and money to set up and can be vulnerable to attack.

If the communication device is used by ARMY UNIT for communication with headquarters, the vulnerability is rarely issue.

18 hours ago, Drasvin said:

That said, such suppression would require multinational cooperation, because if any nation didn't cooperate with suppressing technological research, it could gain a significant upper-hand against the nations that did suppress their technology.

Yes, or all mages being effectively single "nation" (empire).

18 hours ago, Drasvin said:

And going by history, nations with a significant advantage towards their neighbors typically will seek to conquer and/or exploit their neighbors, which means the other nations that suppressed their technology would either have to abandon the magic users' monopoly or suffer on the receiving end of conquest/exploitation.

Not only that, going by history rarely any nation deliberately misses the opportunity to obtain such advantage. You only need to hint that there is some technology usable in war and magic users will have full hands with internal opposition. They can still keep the ban, but it would be hard ...

15 hours ago, ChronosCat said:

My thinking is that in the 18th and 19th centuries, magic could do similar things to the inventions made in those centuries in our world, and as such many of those inventions were never made or never became well known.

15 hours ago, ChronosCat said:

For instance, if they already possessed a magical means of two-way audio & video communication (something which has to be set up in specific locations and cannot easily be moved, like say a pool with runes carved into its stone walls), they might not have invented the electric telegraph or land-line telephones. And if they could light their homes with magic lanterns instead of oil or gas based lanterns, there might not be any incentive to build an electrical grid. And so on.

The main reason for boom of technology in 18th and 19th centuries was invention of mass production. I believe magic can never be mass-produced, BUT it still can be used to DO the mass production - say, magical golems instead of machines doing simple repetitive work.

Nobles can light their homes with magic lanterns, but can farmer afford that? Can factory worker?
And Army would TOTALLY go for audio & video communication which is portable, even if "portable" means there will be cable between units. You can laid telegraph cable as fast as army can move.

15 hours ago, ChronosCat said:

As a result of this the technological growth of this alternate world was stunted, and they're still decades or more away from developing the miniturized electronics required for cell phones (and PCs for that matter) - assuming anyone has thought to research such things at all.

On the other hand, magic can make some miniaturization simpler. Yes, it's true there may be decades of technological difference ... but wireless phones started in 1949. Magus might not know about smartphones, but not knowing about the portable phone idea would require much bigger difference.

16 hours ago, ChronosCat said:

...It occurs to me this is a lot of speculation built on the facts that we weren't told that Magus took Ashley's phone, and we haven't seen any modern technology in the brief flashbacks we've had to Magus world.

Extremely brief flashback. Although the uniform Magus and Terra had might be used for SOME speculations ...

16 hours ago, ChronosCat said:

I still stand by my claim that my scenario is possible, but knowing Dan it's more likely Magus world has modern tech

Yes. Knowing Dan, he doesn't WANT to think about how magic would influence Magus world ... or main EGS universe. He prefers pretending everything will happen basically same. Which is on edge of believability even in case magic is sparse and secret ...

16 hours ago, ChronosCat said:

and either Magus and Sirleck did take Ashley's phone and we don't know it yet, or they simply forgot. (We could even wind up with a scene of "I thought you took her phone!" "No, you were supposed to do that!")

Or "I though you checked she doesn't have phone" - "I totally did, WHERE she had it?"

Ashley took off her winter coat. The clothes she have under it may not have any pockets - or at least, not any pockets man would find. I would assume the winter coat does, and they could easily check them even BEFORE they put it back on her (hmmm ... who was doing that?).

 

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49 minutes ago, hkmaly said:

Actually, couriers needs quite a lot infrastructure on places where they change horses. Long-range communication ALWAYS needs infrastructure.

Hrm. I am wondering if carrier pigeons might be one of the closest things we have to an exception. After all, all you need to do is bring it with you and keep it fed and happy, then set it loose with a letter attached to it. An infrastructure would still be immensely helpful in getting the pigeons to where the messages would be sent from, but in theory at least someone could travel into the wilds and then release pigeons with messages as they please. This latter case is obviously only one-way communication and I do not think it fully counts; even ONE destination point with a tower to receive pigeons could in some way be considered infrastructure.

Then, of course, there is always the problem of the pigeon getting intercepted by hunting birds or keen eyed archers. I suppose you could call that a case of lost packets?

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15 hours ago, Tuscahoma said:

Ok, you got me, Doc.  It's wabbit season.  So, do you want to shoot me now, or wait till you get home?  <pregnant pause>

Shoot him now! Shoot him now!!

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3 hours ago, Stature said:
19 hours ago, Tuscahoma said:

Ok, you got me, Doc.  It's wabbit season.  So, do you want to shoot me now, or wait till you get home?  <pregnant pause>

Shoot him now! Shoot him now!!

You be quiet, he does not have to shoot you now!

Thank you!

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12 hours ago, The Old Hack said:

even ONE destination point with a tower to receive pigeons could in some way be considered infrastructure.

While pigeons possibly can be used without infrastructure, I think use of pigeons without tower at target location is rare and probably for good reasons.

12 hours ago, The Old Hack said:

Then, of course, there is always the problem of the pigeon getting intercepted by hunting birds or keen eyed archers. I suppose you could call that a case of lost packets?

Yes, although it's not specifically mentioned in RFCs.

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3 hours ago, hkmaly said:

While pigeons possibly can be used without infrastructure, I think use of pigeons without tower at target location is rare and probably for good reasons.

I somehow don't see it becoming standard for communication between submarines, no. :icon_eek:

 

3 hours ago, hkmaly said:

Yes, although it's not specifically mentioned in RFCs.

To be fair, the Pigeonnet was a huge mess of numerous nonstandard codes and poorly mapped routes. They never did manage to come up with a common IP (InterPigeon) address system and each pigeon more or less picked its own path in its own good time. Given the extreme redundancy forced by the packet losses of this system it is a miracle that there was even bandwidth enough left for the pigeons to flap their wings in.

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16 hours ago, The Old Hack said:

Then, of course, there is always the problem of the pigeon getting intercepted by hunting birds or keen eyed archers. I suppose you could call that a case of lost packets?

Well, Mary of Exeter didn't have any problem with archers, at least as far as I'm aware, but she did get into a fight with some hawks the Germans kept. They wounded her in the neck and right breast, but she was able to return to duty after two months.

On a later mission she had a run in with someone with a scatter gun, got her wingtip shot off and several pellets in her body.

She was eventually retired after being hit by shrapnel, tearing her neck muscles badly, but still she got through. Her owner made a leather harness that allowed her to keep her head up even though the muscles were just so much minced meat.

Her retirement was however not to be as pleasantly quiet as a Lady with her merits deserve as in 1942 the germans managed to drop a bomb on the loft where she was spending her days. But once again she pulled through and survived even this, though a lot of the other pigeons in the loft were killed.

She was presented with the Dickin Medal in November of 1945, and eventually died in 1950. 

With no dropped packages she had a pretty good record...

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36 minutes ago, The Old Hack said:
4 hours ago, hkmaly said:

While pigeons possibly can be used without infrastructure, I think use of pigeons without tower at target location is rare and probably for good reasons.

I somehow don't see it becoming standard for communication between submarines, no. :icon_eek:

That would be another issue with that standard, although I'm not sure how it's related to my comment.

28 minutes ago, Cpt. Obvious said:

Her retirement was however not to be as pleasantly quiet as a Lady with her merits deserve as in 1942 the germans managed to drop a bomb on the loft where she was spending her days. But once again she pulled through and survived even this, though a lot of the other pigeons in the loft were killed.

I'm sure germans were furious the main target of that attack survived.

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2 hours ago, Cpt. Obvious said:

in 1942 the germans managed to drop a bomb on the loft where she was spending her days. But once again she pulled through and survived even this

 

1 hour ago, hkmaly said:

I'm sure germans were furious the main target of that attack survived.

Dick Dastardly had a few comments, but Muttley just seems to laugh it off.

 

15 hours ago, Tuscahoma said:

You be quiet, he does not have to shoot you now!

Stay out of this.  I say he does have to shoot me now.
So Shoot Me Now!

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1 hour ago, hkmaly said:

That would be another issue with that standard, although I'm not sure how it's related to my comment.

Don't mind me, I was off on a tangent. Conning towers notwithstanding, submarines are not ideal as targets for pigeons to home in on. Especially when submerged.

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18 hours ago, Pharaoh RutinTutin said:

Stay out of this.  I say he does have to shoot me now.
So Shoot Me Now!

<Bang!>

<Cue image of duck with Ash covered face and his bill on his head. He snaps his bill back in place.>

Let's try that again.

(Thanks for all who participated!)

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On 12/14/2017 at 3:50 AM, hkmaly said:

Actually, couriers needs quite a lot infrastructure on places where they change horses. Long-range communication ALWAYS needs infrastructure.

I forgot about changing horses, though technically they could stop and rest the horse if the communication isn't urgent or the infrastructure to horse-swap simply isn't there.

 

On 12/13/2017 at 11:35 AM, ChronosCat said:

My thinking is that in the 18th and 19th centuries, magic could do similar things to the inventions made in those centuries in our world, and as such many of those inventions were never made or never became well known. As a result of this the technological growth of this alternate world was stunted, and they're still decades or more away from developing the miniturized electronics required for cell phones (and PCs for that matter) - assuming anyone has thought to research such things at all.

For instance, if they already possessed a magical means of two-way audio & video communication (something which has to be set up in specific locations and cannot easily be moved, like say a pool with runes carved into its stone walls), they might not have invented the electric telegraph or land-line telephones. And if they could light their homes with magic lanterns instead of oil or gas based lanterns, there might not be any incentive to build an electrical grid. And so on.

...It occurs to me this is a lot of speculation built on the facts that we weren't told that Magus took Ashley's phone, and we haven't seen any modern technology in the brief flashbacks we've had to Magus world. I still stand by my claim that my scenario is possible, but knowing Dan it's more likely Magus world has modern tech and either Magus and Sirleck did take Ashley's phone and we don't know it yet, or they simply forgot. (We could even wind up with a scene of "I thought you took her phone!" "No, you were supposed to do that!")

A lot of research came about not from people seeking a solution to a problem, but from trying to better understand how the world works and then seeking a problem for their solution. Or the research was a side-effect of other research. A better solution existing would limit proliferation of the new technologies, but whether magic were a truly better alternative would require answering questions of production and cost in addition to effectiveness. And typically, costs of a solution weigh much more heavily than effectiveness of the solution.

 

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1 minute ago, Drasvin said:

I forgot about changing horses, though technically they could stop and rest the horse if the communication isn't urgent or the infrastructure to horse-swap simply isn't there.

It is possible to keep at a higher speed if you bring a string of horses. Once the one you are riding gets tired, you switch to another one. This obviously won't let you gallop all the time but it will allow you to keep moving at a walk or even alternating between trot and walk for longer distances.

Thing is, just having horses requires infrastructure. Especially good riding horses. At the very least it requires stores of food that will allow you to travel without having to spend inordinate amounts of time allowing the horse (or horses) to graze. Those bags of grain or horse feed that are so popular took farms and craftsmen to prepare. So did the saddle and tack, for that matter. And the horseshoes.

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3 hours ago, The Old Hack said:
3 hours ago, Drasvin said:

I forgot about changing horses, though technically they could stop and rest the horse if the communication isn't urgent or the infrastructure to horse-swap simply isn't there.

It is possible to keep at a higher speed if you bring a string of horses. Once the one you are riding gets tired, you switch to another one. This obviously won't let you gallop all the time but it will allow you to keep moving at a walk or even alternating between trot and walk for longer distances.

Thing is, just having horses requires infrastructure. Especially good riding horses. At the very least it requires stores of food that will allow you to travel without having to spend inordinate amounts of time allowing the horse (or horses) to graze. Those bags of grain or horse feed that are so popular took farms and craftsmen to prepare. So did the saddle and tack, for that matter. And the horseshoes.

Most couriers only need one saddle per horse - or less. However, the food requires infrastructure all along the path (in regular intervals), because you can't pack required amount of food and still expect to move fast.

3 hours ago, Drasvin said:

A lot of research came about not from people seeking a solution to a problem, but from trying to better understand how the world works and then seeking a problem for their solution. Or the research was a side-effect of other research.

... and magic could actually make this research EASIER.

3 hours ago, Drasvin said:

A better solution existing would limit proliferation of the new technologies, but whether magic were a truly better alternative would require answering questions of production and cost in addition to effectiveness. And typically, costs of a solution weigh much more heavily than effectiveness of the solution.

And as I said, I doubt magic can be mass-produced. Certainly not in a way technology can. The proliferation might be slower if rich "first adopters" would opt for magic-basic solution instead, but the research would likely still be there and if something proves to be useful the production can go up quickly.

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2 hours ago, hkmaly said:

Most couriers only need one saddle per horse - or less.

Even so, that one saddle requires a LOT of skill, specialised tools and materials to make, especially if it is supposed to be comfortable for both horse and courier. You can try to ride bareback for days on end if you disbelieve me. Personally I suspect that after a couple of days I'd wish I were a eunuch and round about the end of the journey I'd be a eunuch. :icon_eek:

And the skill, the tools and the various materials that go into a good saddle all require infrastructure. So there we are again.

2 hours ago, hkmaly said:

And as I said, I doubt magic can be mass-produced. Certainly not in a way technology can. The proliferation might be slower if rich "first adopters" would opt for magic-basic solution instead, but the research would likely still be there and if something proves to be useful the production can go up quickly.

It is often an economy of scales thing. If you know that something is likely to be embraced by a mass market, you are more willing to throw the large amounts of time and money into the research needed to create it and make it financially feasible to produce. Mind you, a lot also depends on the magic system involved. Is magic limited to a few exceptional individuals? Or is it available to everyone if they can get the training? Does it require a power source, and is the power source renewable or limited? All can be factors.

Steven Brust's Dragaera has magic available to everyone but really skilled mages are somewhat rare. A certain number of mages do research to improve what is known about magic. Many everyday necessities are easily accomplished by any schoolchild and power itself is for all intents and purposes unlimited, drawn through the Imperial Orb which in turn taps into the Great Sea of Chaos. All this makes magic common and useful, and in many cases the Dragaerans have found magic possible to combine with and assist in the development of technology. Technology, incidentally, gained a surge of popularity during the Interregnum, a three centuries long interval of time where there was no Emperor and magic did not work.

Larry Niven had magic be powerful, incredibly useful and available to anyone intelligent enough to master the incantations behind it. It was also a non-renewable resource. Once it was spent, it was gone. You could create a floating castle in the sky if you wanted but eventually it would drain the region it floated above of magic and then it would fall. Finally enterprising mages created doomsday weapons that essentially worked through burning out all the magic in an area. Eventually magic was gone from all civilised lands and only a few isolated spots retained any.

Jack Vance invented what Gary Gygax later on stole for Dungeons and Dragons. It is self-explanatory. Only a few could use it, it required incredible strength of will, and every spell could only be used once until re-memorised. This does not seem like a system where magic would supplant technology. (Gary Gygax made a good try at it, though. The physics of his game world were beyond surreal. Gold had so low a density that it could float on water, it took you a full minute to achieve terminal speed when falling and once you did achieve terminal velocity you fell at a rate of about five meters (six yards) a second. And there was much, much more that was odd about it. I am not sure that technology as we know it would even work under physical laws that strange.)

And so forth. I should in passing mention the Technomancers of Mage: the Ascension. In Mage, part of what makes magic possible is general belief. The Technomancers essentially won the Ascension War by making humanity believe in the laws of science they had painstakingly crafted. 'Technological' advances become possible by convincing people that they are new inventions. In short, that world posits that technology is magic, we just don't know it is. (Even though the Technomancers are cast as villains, I kind of like them. In order for their magic to work, the population must be well educated and be able to partake freely in the marvels the Technomancers create. All the other magical Traditions are by far more elitist. Sure, they are 'more sensitive of the needs of Gaia.' They would also have all the rest of us live in muddy hovels and be ignorant so we can more easily believe in their magical marvels. No thanks.

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50 minutes ago, The Old Hack said:

Steven Brust's Dragaera has magic available to everyone but really skilled mages are somewhat rare. A certain number of mages do research to improve what is known about magic. Many everyday necessities are easily accomplished by any schoolchild and power itself is for all intents and purposes unlimited, drawn through the Imperial Orb which in turn taps into the Great Sea of Chaos. All this makes magic common and useful, and in many cases the Dragaerans have found magic possible to combine with and assist in the development of technology. Technology, incidentally, gained a surge of popularity during the Interregnum, a three centuries long interval of time where there was no Emperor and magic did not work.

This certainly made finding new emperor very important ...

50 minutes ago, The Old Hack said:

Larry Niven had magic be powerful, incredibly useful and available to anyone intelligent enough to master the incantations behind it. It was also a non-renewable resource. Once it was spent, it was gone. You could create a floating castle in the sky if you wanted but eventually it would drain the region it floated above of magic and then it would fall. Finally enterprising mages created doomsday weapons that essentially worked through burning out all the magic in an area. Eventually magic was gone from all civilised lands and only a few isolated spots retained any.

I'm sure they would pay a lot for having their own sea of chaos ...

50 minutes ago, The Old Hack said:

Jack Vance invented what Gary Gygax later on stole for Dungeons and Dragons. It is self-explanatory. Only a few could use it, it required incredible strength of will, and every spell could only be used once until re-memorised. This does not seem like a system where magic would supplant technology. (Gary Gygax made a good try at it, though. The physics of his game world were beyond surreal. Gold had so low a density that it could float on water, it took you a full minute to achieve terminal speed when falling and once you did achieve terminal velocity you fell at a rate of about five meters (six yards) a second. And there was much, much more that was odd about it. I am not sure that technology as we know it would even work under physical laws that strange.)

It might work great actually. It's the research which would be hard, as the rules are numerous, don't match together and make little sense, but the moment you convince GM that something should work ...

50 minutes ago, The Old Hack said:

And so forth. I should in passing mention the Technomancers of Mage: the Ascension. In Mage, part of what makes magic possible is general belief. The Technomancers essentially won the Ascension War by making humanity believe in the laws of science they had painstakingly crafted. 'Technological' advances become possible by convincing people that they are new inventions. In short, that world posits that technology is magic, we just don't know it is.

I heard the argument that majority would reject quantum physic if they would have the possibility ... LIE. Majority would enthusiasticly accept quantum physics because they WANT their plasma screens.

50 minutes ago, The Old Hack said:

(Even though the Technomancers are cast as villains, I kind of like them. In order for their magic to work, the population must be well educated and be able to partake freely in the marvels the Technomancers create. All the other magical Traditions are by far more elitist. Sure, they are 'more sensitive of the needs of Gaia.' They would also have all the rest of us live in muddy hovels and be ignorant so we can more easily believe in their magical marvels. No thanks.

).

Maybe it's just modern technomancers who are cast as villains BECAUSE they started to abandon the original ideals of Order of Reason?

Personally, I don't think the conflict between magic and technology was necessary. They should've tried to compromise more. But if that failed, well, I would prefer the Order of Reason too ...

50 minutes ago, The Old Hack said:

It is often an economy of scales thing. If you know that something is likely to be embraced by a mass market, you are more willing to throw the large amounts of time and money into the research needed to create it and make it financially feasible to produce.

You rarely know what will be results of research before you do it. Investors hate it but that's how it is. Yes, the secondary research of how to make something financially feasible to produce might depend on predictions of how popular it would be, but the primary research would always bring surprises.

50 minutes ago, The Old Hack said:

Mind you, a lot also depends on the magic system involved. Is magic limited to a few exceptional individuals? Or is it available to everyone if they can get the training? Does it require a power source, and is the power source renewable or limited? All can be factors.

Programming is available to everyone if they can get the training and require very little power. Still, most people are unable to do it well. I find very likely magic would be extremely similar to programming - in the best case of no other limits on it than the ability of people to learn how to use it.

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41 minutes ago, hkmaly said:

You rarely know what will be results of research before you do it. Investors hate it but that's how it is.

Countless examples of this. In the years just after 2000, Nokia completely controlled the telephone market. In their wisdom, the management slashed the 'expensive and unnecessary' R&D department at Nokia. They already had the world's best mobile phone, why bother researching any more? Not too long after, several other companies overtook them. Now Nokia dominance is a memory.

During WW2, several examples. The Japanese had the supremely designed and developed Zero fighter plane and it ruled the skies all but unchallenged. Since this was clearly the pinnacle of fighter development, the Japanese high command saw no reason to waste further resources on expensive research. A couple of years later, American fighter planes began to outperform the Zero. By then the Japanese no longer had an R&D program for fighters and the Americans had a two year head start plus the irreplaceable forward momentum that Japanese high command so carelessly discarded.

Or the Luftwaffe AND the RAF. The jet plane was considered a dubious project. In England it barely took off, figuratively and literally. In Germany they had one genius designer working on it who also had the backing of the Führer, but ironically he died in a plane crash and the program stalled for two years. If he had survived, we might have seen the first Me 262s in early 1942 rather than late 1943.

A funny counterexample. The OTHER very influential man in the Luftwaffe's R&D was a complete and utter idiot. He ordered the design of a plane that was supposed to have the carrying capacity of a Flying Fortress and the dive bombing capabilities of a Stuka. He directed immense resources towards this end. That these two requirements were all but mutually exclusive entirely escaped him. That the design staff of the Luftwaffe almost managed to do it anyway is a testament to their ingenuity. They actually had the designs for something that might almost have worked as desired in early 1945. Had the war lasted six months longer, the first models might have flown in combat. This goes to show that while research is well and good, it is helpful to have some sort of idea of how practical your goal is.

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51 minutes ago, The Old Hack said:

Countless examples of this. In the years just after 2000, Nokia completely controlled the telephone market. In their wisdom, the management slashed the 'expensive and unnecessary' R&D department at Nokia. They already had the world's best mobile phone, why bother researching any more? Not too long after, several other companies overtook them. Now Nokia dominance is a memory.

During WW2, several examples. The Japanese had the supremely designed and developed Zero fighter plane and it ruled the skies all but unchallenged. Since this was clearly the pinnacle of fighter development, the Japanese high command saw no reason to waste further resources on expensive research. A couple of years later, American fighter planes began to outperform the Zero. By then the Japanese no longer had an R&D program for fighters and the Americans had a two year head start plus the irreplaceable forward momentum that Japanese high command so carelessly discarded.

Or the Luftwaffe AND the RAF. The jet plane was considered a dubious project. In England it barely took off, figuratively and literally. In Germany they had one genius designer working on it who also had the backing of the Führer, but ironically he died in a plane crash and the program stalled for two years. If he had survived, we might have seen the first Me 262s in early 1942 rather than late 1943.

Everything that can be invented has been invented.
                -- Charles Duell, Director of U.S. Patent Office, 1899

(Ok, not really, but is funny joke ... and any country actually thinking that ended up conquered.)

I've also heard that France admiralty sometime around that time had list of three problems considered impossible and therefore not worth exploring: perpetuum mobile, dirigible balloon and tunnel into England. (I hope I don't need to say which of those two happened.)

However, even if the research DOES happen, it may result in something completely unexpected. Like microwave oven.

1 hour ago, The Old Hack said:

A funny counterexample. The OTHER very influential man in the Luftwaffe's R&D was a complete and utter idiot. He ordered the design of a plane that was supposed to have the carrying capacity of a Flying Fortress and the dive bombing capabilities of a Stuka. He directed immense resources towards this end. That these two requirements were all but mutually exclusive entirely escaped him. That the design staff of the Luftwaffe almost managed to do it anyway is a testament to their ingenuity. They actually had the designs for something that might almost have worked as desired in early 1945. Had the war lasted six months longer, the first models might have flown in combat. This goes to show that while research is well and good, it is helpful to have some sort of idea of how practical your goal is.

I would say that it shows how no amount of money can make bad idea good. Serious research would certainly notice how mutually exclusive those goals are before spending too much money on it (I would assume it did but that idiot ignored the report). On the other hand ... When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong. (Arthur C. Clarke)

 

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