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hkmaly

Story Monday, Mar 2, 2020 [Party-128]

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16 hours ago, Darth Fluffy said:

I think your outlook would be valid for much of the world, but not for Europe, our urban centers, especially northeast coast and California, nor most of Asia. Too dense, too many interactions. What China did in Wuhan seems draconian, but it is about the only way they could have run an effective quarantine. They're the only ones who could have pulled that off (after initially F----ing up badly). If you haven't heard, they quarantined the city itself, and quarantined everyone in it within their homes.

Well, yes, but didn't Italy already done something similar?

16 hours ago, Darth Fluffy said:

Our response or Japans is going to be more typical; half-assed measures that are sometimes going to be counterproductive.

We are already closing some shops but so far, workers are supposed to show up in factories. Yeah sounds half-assed.

People who were skying in Italy and returned home recently are not popular now, but so far, none of them died either from the virus nor from someone with strong opinion about it.

16 hours ago, Darth Fluffy said:

Personally, I am authorized to work from home. I will avail myself of that opportunity more than I have.

I don't have any other option than working for home for years already. Well, unless you count the option to work from anywhere else with WiFi. Now I just need to guess correctly which day wouldn't be safe to go shopping ... too late and I get infected. Too soon and I run out of food, will need to go shopping later and get infected.

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8 hours ago, hkmaly said:

Well, yes, but didn't Italy already done something similar?

We are already closing some shops but so far, workers are supposed to show up in factories. Yeah sounds half-assed.

People who were skying in Italy and returned home recently are not popular now, but so far, none of them died either from the virus nor from someone with strong opinion about it.

I don't have any other option than working for home for years already. Well, unless you count the option to work from anywhere else with WiFi. Now I just need to guess correctly which day wouldn't be safe to go shopping ... too late and I get infected. Too soon and I run out of food, will need to go shopping later and get infected.

I enjoy going out to eat, typically meet with friends or some of my kids. I've been doing it less. Haven't done a full stop yet.

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Florida has given a order to every student in public schools

Go home
Get sick
Come back in two weeks

Seriously, every public school in the State has been ordered to close for the next two weeks

I can only assume that the bureaucrats intend for every student to get their sick time out of the way at the same time

Of course, every time we had an extended break from school when i was a kid, my parents would have us so busy going places and doing things that I was often sick and exhausted when I went back to school

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2 hours ago, Pharaoh RutinTutin said:

Florida has given a order to every student in public schools

Go home
Get sick
Come back in two weeks

Seriously, every public school in the State has been ordered to close for the next two weeks

I can only assume that the bureaucrats intend for every student to get their sick time out of the way at the same time

Of course, every time we had an extended break from school when i was a kid, my parents would have us so busy going places and doing things that I was often sick and exhausted when I went back to school

It sounds like a good idea on the surface, and for the politician, the appearance of doing something is critical; I'd even grant that parents are going to take this seriously and not look at it as an opportunity to travel. What doesn't work is that everyone that doesn't get it now is still fodder for the virus in the future. Well, it hasn't been determined that you can't get reinfected, so maybe it's still a good thing to avoid it now. My gut says it's just a delay.

I have to wonder, which social activities am I willing to avoid for the rest of my life?

 

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1 hour ago, Darth Fluffy said:

What doesn't work is that everyone that doesn't get it now is still fodder for the virus in the future.

Actually, that can still be helpful. Say (making numbers up) that we have capacity to put a million victims in the hospital at one time. If we have two million cases who need hospitalization this week, that doesn't work, and we have people dying who could have been saved. If we have a million cases who need hospitalization this week, and a million cases that need hospitalization two weeks from now, that works, and those people end up OK. Heck, even if spreading it out means we have a THIRD million cases another two weeks after that, we're still ahead.

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1 hour ago, Don Edwards said:

Actually, that can still be helpful. Say (making numbers up) that we have capacity to put a million victims in the hospital at one time. If we have two million cases who need hospitalization this week, that doesn't work, and we have people dying who could have been saved. If we have a million cases who need hospitalization this week, and a million cases that need hospitalization two weeks from now, that works, and those people end up OK. Heck, even if spreading it out means we have a THIRD million cases another two weeks after that, we're still ahead.

That is a very good point.

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9 hours ago, Don Edwards said:
11 hours ago, Darth Fluffy said:

What doesn't work is that everyone that doesn't get it now is still fodder for the virus in the future.

Actually, that can still be helpful. Say (making numbers up) that we have capacity to put a million victims in the hospital at one time. If we have two million cases who need hospitalization this week, that doesn't work, and we have people dying who could have been saved. If we have a million cases who need hospitalization this week, and a million cases that need hospitalization two weeks from now, that works, and those people end up OK. Heck, even if spreading it out means we have a THIRD million cases another two weeks after that, we're still ahead.

That's so good point it's surprising it's also official explanation from OUR politicians. Probably because noone would be believing them if they tried to claim they can stop it.

11 hours ago, Darth Fluffy said:

I have to wonder, which social activities am I willing to avoid for the rest of my life?

Not  sure which are you willing to avoid, but little hint of a social activity which may not be possible for the rest of your life: elections.
The problem with virus will eventually be solved: even if we don't find any cure, people will eventually build better immunity, and even if reinfection is possible it wouldn't be that serious third time.

However, lot of governments were already limiting people's rights and privacy ... and this might give them excuse.

On the other hand, this will also be a big push for home office and electronic communication in general.

So, pessimistic view, there wouldn't be any elections. Optimistic one, they wouldn't be social event, as they would be online ... with "who voted for whom" no longer as secret as is now. Sure, it is technically possible to do secret elections online, but only if government wants.

The ability to pay by cash is also in danger. They already recommend not using cash as temporary measure in my country ... possibly because they don't believe cash will survive disinfection ... possibly because it's harder to track cash for tax purposes.

 

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1 hour ago, hkmaly said:

That's so good point it's surprising it's also official explanation from OUR politicians. Probably because noone would be believing them if they tried to claim they can stop it.

Not  sure which are you willing to avoid, but little hint of a social activity which may not be possible for the rest of your life: elections.
The problem with virus will eventually be solved: even if we don't find any cure, people will eventually build better immunity, and even if reinfection is possible it wouldn't be that serious third time.

However, lot of governments were already limiting people's rights and privacy ... and this might give them excuse.

On the other hand, this will also be a big push for home office and electronic communication in general.

So, pessimistic view, there wouldn't be any elections. Optimistic one, they wouldn't be social event, as they would be online ... with "who voted for whom" no longer as secret as is now. Sure, it is technically possible to do secret elections online, but only if government wants.

The ability to pay by cash is also in danger. They already recommend not using cash as temporary measure in my country ... possibly because they don't believe cash will survive disinfection ... possibly because it's harder to track cash for tax purposes.

Good points. I had not thought about the cash angle, but you're right, electronic transfers are easier to track, and they'd probably like to do away with cash anyway. This is a good excuse.

 

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40 minutes ago, ijuin said:

It also has the "advantage" of cutting the unbanked completely out of the economy.

I suspect that if there would be real risk of being cut off, only one who remain unbanked would be the undocumented ones.

Of course, that may be even bigger advantage for government.

(Note that personally I find hard to believe AND quite a "success" of the privacy violators if the number of real unbanked is really as high. I would expect lot of them would be using prepaid/gift cards, prepaid SIM or burner phones.)

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3 hours ago, hkmaly said:

I suspect that if there would be real risk of being cut off, only one who remain unbanked would be the undocumented ones.

Of course, that may be even bigger advantage for government.

(Note that personally I find hard to believe AND quite a "success" of the privacy violators if the number of real unbanked is really as high. I would expect lot of them would be using prepaid/gift cards, prepaid SIM or burner phones.)

In the USA, at least, prepaid cards are often frozen for any or no reason unless you fax the company proof of identity  (which is an obvious temptation for any even slightly shady card companies).

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18 hours ago, hkmaly said:

That's so good point it's surprising it's also official explanation from OUR politicians. Probably because noone would be believing them if they tried to claim they can stop it.

With the number of politicians constantly talking, it's virtually inevitable that every now and then one will say something sensible.

Predicting which one, and when, is left as an exercise for the student.

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4 hours ago, Don Edwards said:
23 hours ago, hkmaly said:

That's so good point it's surprising it's also official explanation from OUR politicians. Probably because noone would be believing them if they tried to claim they can stop it.

With the number of politicians constantly talking, it's virtually inevitable that every now and then one will say something sensible.

Predicting which one, and when, is left as an exercise for the student.

Note that it's not like they come with it independently. They just repeated what someone who actually knows something said. It's still rare, but you have point.

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