Story Monday January 9, 2017

[Vorlonagent 442]

14 minutes ago, hkmaly said:

Immortals themselves are very good in predicting, but it's still "normal" predicting, meaning based on current status and "simulation", not on seeing future.

It's pretty hard to be sure about something being impossible. If magic community is convinced time travel is impossible despite the otherwise unlimited variety of possible spells, it's likely there is extremely good reason for it, which would make unlikely Will of Magic is able to get around such restriction.

And predicting Pandora's behaviour with simulation sounds VERY hard. Given her level of boredom and her TRYING to behave unpredictably ...

More likely, people like Tedd are born infrequently but regularly (or possibly all the time) "just in case", to have some ready whenever there will be need for system change.

If magic reset would be process which require creating "dangerous rarity" and letting it get to age 18, I don't think Pandora would be able to stop it so easily. Or that it will be possible to time it to correct DAY as (apparently) the last reset.

 

Having people like Tedd born now and then does seem the way to bet, but how often?  For Tedd to be a dangerous rarity people with his ability can't be born all that often.  Neither Ed Verres nor Noriko recognized Tedd for what he was and they were from magical dynasties going back hundreds or thousands of years.  That suggests Tedd's ability does not turn up regularly and that the space whales are either really knowledgeable, really old, or both.

As a nitpick, I'd argue that Pandora herself is rather predictable.  Being able to predict the actions of others doesn't necessarily make me (or Pandora in this case) less predictable, despite her chosen middle name of "Chaos".

 

[hkmaly 490]

2 minutes ago, Vorlonagent said:

Having people like Tedd born now and then does seem the way to bet, but how often?  For Tedd to be a dangerous rarity people with his ability can't be born all that often.

One (or few) in seven billions doesn't sound rare enough to you?

2 minutes ago, Vorlonagent said:

Neither Ed Verres nor Noriko recognized Tedd for what he was and they were from magical dynasties going back hundreds or thousands of years.

1) That's speculation 2) Not all those past generation might've been that good at book-keeping. Note that Edward Verres doesn't seem to recognize the risk of magic reset either - at least, he didn't mentioned it as argument when talking with Tedd about how they can't make magic public. (While it MIGHT be due to him predicting Tedd wouldn't take it good, trying to convince him by other means doesn't look like that much better strategy.)

5 minutes ago, Vorlonagent said:

That suggests Tedd's ability does not turn up regularly and that the space whales are either really knowledgeable, really old, or both.

Note that other dangerous rarity might be less active. Tedd was "spoiled rotten" with all the magitech.

7 minutes ago, Vorlonagent said:

As a nitpick, I'd argue that Pandora herself is rather predictable.  Being able to predict the actions of others doesn't necessarily make me (or Pandora in this case) less predictable, despite her chosen middle name of "Chaos".

Her own son doesn't seem to be able to predict her.

Also, while what she does seem quite easy to understand based on her motivation, WHEN she does it, not that much.

And yes, being able to predict others makes you less predictable, because when you act in response to those predictions, you are harder to predict than they are. Similarly, a bag full of stuff usually weights more that every piece of that stuff individually. (Bags of holding are exceptions )

 

[Vorlonagent 442]

39 minutes ago, hkmaly said:

One (or few) in seven billions doesn't sound rare enough to you?

No it does not.  I see "rarity" in terms of depth of time not breadth of people.

39 minutes ago, hkmaly said:

1) That's speculation 2) Not all those past generation might've been that good at book-keeping. Note that Edward Verres doesn't seem to recognize the risk of magic reset either - at least, he didn't mentioned it as argument when talking with Tedd about how they can't make magic public. (While it MIGHT be due to him predicting Tedd wouldn't take it good, trying to convince him by other means doesn't look like that much better strategy.)

Both of Tedd's parents thought he was without magical ability.  That's not speculation.

OK so Ed Verres doesn't get memos from the Will of Magic and Disco Wizard does.  Verres probably does know that magic has changed rules even if he doesn't realize it is liable to do so now.

Moreover, I'd expect both Noriko's and Verres' families to keep very good notes on the behavior and properties of magic.  Their notes may not go back further than the previous rules shift but that's still a long time.

39 minutes ago, hkmaly said:

Note that other dangerous rarity might be less active. Tedd was "spoiled rotten" with all the magitech

We have no information on anybody else with Tedd's ability.  There is no way to know how they handled it therefore no way to tell how active Tedd is by comparison.

39 minutes ago, hkmaly said:

Her own son doesn't seem to be able to predict her.

Adrian Raven doesn't seem to have any particular knack for prediction.  In fact considering his blunders with Ed Verres and Noriko, prediction seems a weak point with Raven, not a strength.

[hkmaly 490]

1 hour ago, hkmaly said:

and they were from magical dynasties going back hundreds or thousands of years.

46 minutes ago, Vorlonagent said:

Both of Tedd's parents thought he was without magical ability.  That's not speculation.

I meant the part about magical dynasties was speculation. Even Noriko's long family history might be just something over century, and Edward's parents might not be magic users at all.

49 minutes ago, Vorlonagent said:

Verres probably does know that magic has changed rules even if he doesn't realize it is liable to do so now.

Maybe not. Just for Disco Wizard being surprised Pandora remembers in from previous self, it must've happened well over three hundred years ago. I don't think DGB is that old (around 1700, Moperville was likely in France colony). And if we take into account the "two hundred and ninety-nine for few centuries" as Pandora said ... unless her previous self reset closely after the magic reset, it might've easily happened more than five centuries ago, probably more.

On the other hand, they probably do possess some older texts, so it's interesting question how much they discovered from them - and how much of that is told to field agents.

1 hour ago, Vorlonagent said:

1 hour ago, hkmaly said:

Note that other dangerous rarity might be less active. Tedd was "spoiled rotten" with all the magitech

We have no information on anybody else with Tedd's ability.  There is no way to know how they handled it therefore no way to tell how active Tedd is by comparison.

Of course. It's just speculation based on one person hardly ensuring anything. Accidents happen.

1 hour ago, Vorlonagent said:

1 hour ago, hkmaly said:

Her own son doesn't seem to be able to predict her.

Adrian Raven doesn't seem to have any particular knack for prediction.  In fact considering his blunders with Ed Verres and Noriko, prediction seems a weak point with Raven, not a strength.

Good point , but I was going for the "who could know her better than her own son" angle.

[Vorlonagent 442]

18 minutes ago, hkmaly said:

I meant the part about magical dynasties was speculation. Even Noriko's long family history might be just something over century, and Edward's parents might not be magic users at all.

In another comic Noriko talks about the great results that should have come from joining Ed Verres' bloodline to her own.  For Verres to have a "bloodline" he needs to have been from a family used to producing powerful magic users.  He shouldn't be a child of muggles.  A family of magic users ought to have a well-curated body of family magic lore.

21 minutes ago, hkmaly said:

Maybe not. Just for Disco Wizard being surprised Pandora remembers in from previous self, it must've happened well over three hundred years ago. I don't think DGB is that old (around 1700, Moperville was likely in France colony). And if we take into account the "two hundred and ninety-nine for few centuries" as Pandora said ... unless her previous self reset closely after the magic reset, it might've easily happened more than five centuries ago, probably more.

I think the last magic change happened a lot longer than a few hundred years ago.  Record keeping would have left too much evidence of magic use.  I am speculating here but I'm thinking the last magic rules shift occurred a minimum of 1000 years ago.  Could be several thousand years ago, but I'm willing to use the Dark Ages as an excuse for the magic reset not being being well-documented. 

[hkmaly 490]

28 minutes ago, Vorlonagent said:

56 minutes ago, hkmaly said:

I meant the part about magical dynasties was speculation. Even Noriko's long family history might be just something over century, and Edward's parents might not be magic users at all.

In another comic Noriko talks about the great results that should have come from joining Ed Verres' bloodline to her own.  For Verres to have a "bloodline" he needs to have been from a family used to producing powerful magic users.  He shouldn't be a child of muggles.  A family of magic users ought to have a well-curated body of family magic lore.

They may also know about him being part of bloodline from blood tests or something. And note that Edwards parents might never be awakened or dreaming and still carry the genes. Note that Susan is part of bloodline of summoners but neither of her parents ever told her and neither might be aware.

Personally, I consider more likely at least one of Edward's parents WAS magic user (and was reason why Edward ended in DGB, because I doubt Adrian Raven would send him there), but nevertheless, it's pure speculation, nothing in the comics confirms that. And that's just parents, going even more in past is even bigger speculation.

28 minutes ago, Vorlonagent said:

56 minutes ago, hkmaly said:

Maybe not. Just for Disco Wizard being surprised Pandora remembers in from previous self, it must've happened well over three hundred years ago. I don't think DGB is that old (around 1700, Moperville was likely in France colony). And if we take into account the "two hundred and ninety-nine for few centuries" as Pandora said ... unless her previous self reset closely after the magic reset, it might've easily happened more than five centuries ago, probably more.

I think the last magic change happened a lot longer than a few hundred years ago.  Record keeping would have left too much evidence of magic use.  I am speculating here but I'm thinking the last magic rules shift occurred a minimum of 1000 years ago.  Could be several thousand years ago, but I'm willing to use the Dark Ages as an excuse for the magic reset not being being well-documented. 

I was speaking about minimum. Personally I consider "more than thousand" also more likely, but, yes, it's speculation. And based on how careful Dan avoided dating Pandora's backstory, we may never know.

Looking into history, if the minimum probe to be true, then witch-hunting MIGHT've been caused by witches no longer being able to protect themselves with magic. Before that, magic reset might've cleared path for Christianity (location where that happened would depend on when the reset was). And before that, Roman Empire possibly conquered someone who depended on magic for defense.

Genghis Khan founded his empire around 1200, but I'm sure there were hordes Pandora might've been speaking about both before and after him. In fact, considering Genghis Khan succeeded and the horde Pandora was speaking about failed, it WASN'T him. Horses were domesticated between 4000BC and 3000BC, I don't think there can be horde without horses ...

(Well, maybe camels, those MIGHT've been domesticated earlier ... )

[The Old Hack 2,448]

7 hours ago, hkmaly said:

Genghis Khan founded his empire around 1200, but I'm sure there were hordes Pandora might've been speaking about both before and after him. In fact, considering Genghis Khan succeeded and the horde Pandora was speaking about failed, it WASN'T him. Horses were domesticated between 4000BC and 3000BC, I don't think there can be horde without horses ...

Sure there can. You just need a sizeable number. Maybe the horde that failed was a horde of peasants rebelling against their oppressive nobles.

Hey, it could have been in Denmark. We had a peasant rebellion back in a time that fits with the timeframe.

[hkmaly 490]

14 hours ago, The Old Hack said:

21 hours ago, hkmaly said:

Genghis Khan founded his empire around 1200, but I'm sure there were hordes Pandora might've been speaking about both before and after him. In fact, considering Genghis Khan succeeded and the horde Pandora was speaking about failed, it WASN'T him. Horses were domesticated between 4000BC and 3000BC, I don't think there can be horde without horses ...

Sure there can. You just need a sizeable number. Maybe the horde that failed was a horde of peasants rebelling against their oppressive nobles.

Hey, it could have been in Denmark. We had a peasant rebellion back in a time that fits with the timeframe.

Hmmm ... it's true that Heroes of Might and Magic DID used horde as just a term for size. Luckily Pandora's quotation continues: They rode into battle ....

[The Old Hack 2,448]

1 hour ago, hkmaly said:

Hmmm ... it's true that Heroes of Might and Magic DID used horde as just a term for size. Luckily Pandora's quotation continues: They rode into battle ....

Danish peasants at the time had oxen and donkeys and mules. Maybe they rode into battle on those. Yeah, it would look comical, but how much would you laugh after getting your first faceful of fireballs?

[hkmaly 490]

19 minutes ago, The Old Hack said:

2 hours ago, hkmaly said:

Hmmm ... it's true that Heroes of Might and Magic DID used horde as just a term for size. Luckily Pandora's quotation continues: They rode into battle ....

Danish peasants at the time had oxen and donkeys and mules. Maybe they rode into battle on those. Yeah, it would look comical, but how much would you laugh after getting your first faceful of fireballs?

Oxen was domesticated around 4000BC, just like camels (and Water buffalo). Donkeys 3000BC ... wait, this page says 5000BC. Ok, maybe they might be riding into battle sooner on donkeys.

(I see I wasn't clear ... it's not that you can't ride anything else, it's just that I was looking for what could they ride on BEFORE domestication of horses.)

[The Old Hack 2,448]

3 hours ago, hkmaly said:

Oxen was domesticated around 4000BC, just like camels (and Water buffalo). Donkeys 3000BC ... wait, this page says 5000BC. Ok, maybe they might be riding into battle sooner on donkeys.

(I see I wasn't clear ... it's not that you can't ride anything else, it's just that I was looking for what could they ride on BEFORE domestication of horses.)

Oh. Right. Well, let's assume Dwarf Fortress rules -- you can ride just about anything in that. One fortress was besieged by polar bears and they had a polar bear general who was so badass he rode into battle on another polar bear. Maybe the peasants just took turns acting as mounts for one another?

Or actually... maybe this.

[mlooney 3,417]

For what it's worth in at least Indonesia, water buffalo are used as a riding animal.

 

[ProfessorTomoe 1,308]

In Soviet Russia, Water Buffalo rides you.

Sorry. Almost got carried away there.

[hkmaly 490]

17 hours ago, The Old Hack said:

Oh. Right. Well, let's assume Dwarf Fortress rules -- you can ride just about anything in that.

Let's not. EGS universe seem to be very close to ours. We can assume that the history of domestication of animals for riding was same or similar to our universe history. Certainly more similar to our universe than Dwarf Fortress.

16 hours ago, mlooney said:

For what it's worth in at least Indonesia, water buffalo are used as a riding animal.

20 hours ago, hkmaly said:

Oxen was domesticated around 4000BC, just like camels (and Water buffalo).

I repeat, I'm looking for the time estimate based on the earliest date group of people could plausibly ride into battle. The sources may not be completely reliable, but assuming riding was first thing tried after domestication, it seems that there were several options available around 4000BC (including camels, oxen and water buffalo), closely followed by horse (who, if available, was apparently declared best option and other animals were only used in special conditions (desert) or when horse was not available) between 4000BC and 3000BC, but only option earlier would be the donkey.

Based on this article for example, people first domesticated dogs, then sheep and goats, then cats, but neither was usable for riding. And even with oxen, donkeys and camels is possible that riding wasn't considered option until later (that they were using for transporting goods, but not for riding).

This article suggest horses and donkeys were domesticated at same time but different places, first as source of meat, then as means of transport. While american indians domesticates llama and alpaca at same time, they are not strong enough for transport ; Camels in africa and asia are bigger but were domesticates later.

Note that dates in those articles contraindicate each other ...

[The Old Hack 2,448]

 

14 minutes ago, hkmaly said:

17 hours ago, The Old Hack said:

Oh. Right. Well, let's assume Dwarf Fortress rules -- you can ride just about anything in that.

Let's not.

Awwww

[ijuin 572]

I think that horses became the mount of choice due to their higher running speed--horses easily run twice as fast as a human, even when encumbered with 150+ kilograms of human rider and equipment.

[hkmaly 490]

1 hour ago, ijuin said:

I think that horses became the mount of choice due to their higher running speed--horses easily run twice as fast as a human, even when encumbered with 150+ kilograms of human rider and equipment.

Humans actually can outrun horse. In fact, humans are optimized for long-distance running and before invention of better weapons routinely hunted by chasing after supposedly fast animal long enough for the animal to overheat and die.

But, yes, the comparison will change if you include equipment and/or other load / cargo. In context of battle, soldiers armored comparably to knights were barely able to move, much less run. Even light armor would be too heavy to effectively run in it and most battles didn't included long-distance until one side started to throw away weapons and run.

Also, humans are naturally lazy and likely didn't include "alternatively I could just run" in their comparison of riding animals. Horses likely won over other animals with both speed and load and comparison to people wasn't relevant.

(And finally, the kind of people who first used horses likely wasn't exactly in top shape.)

[mlooney 3,417]

1 hour ago, hkmaly said:

In context of battle, soldiers armored comparably to knights were barely able to move, much less run.

Never been to an big SCA event I take it.  Well made plate is not that hard to run in, at least over tactical distances.

[hkmaly 490]

33 minutes ago, mlooney said:

1 hour ago, hkmaly said:

In context of battle, soldiers armored comparably to knights were barely able to move, much less run.

Never been to an big SCA event I take it.  Well made plate is not that hard to run in, at least over tactical distances.

Hmmm ... it's true I already read some articles about knights being able to do acrobatic stuff like jumping even in armor ...

Ok, I overstated it with the "barely move". Still, I have my doubts about heavy infantry outruning cavalry.

(Actually, I already mentioned that battles rarely included any long-distance, so on those "tactical distances" horse would be faster anyway.)

[mlooney 3,417]

1 hour ago, hkmaly said:

I have my doubts about heavy infantry outruning cavalry.

Roman heavy infantry could, over the course of several days, run down barbarians on horseback.  It's the several days part that you need to take into account.  Humans have a longer and faster "medium" speed of any land animal.  We will always get them, assuming we can follow the trail.  A lot of animals have burst speed way faster than humans, but over the long haul we win.  That's why we are the apex predator of the earth surface under about 10,000 ft above mean sea level.

[Pharaoh RutinTutin 1,586]

1 minute ago, mlooney said:

we are the apex predator of the earth surface under about 10,000 ft above mean sea level.

How do we do above seas that are gentle and calm?

[mlooney 3,417]

Just now, Pharaoh RutinTutin said:

How do we do above seas that are gentle and calm?

About the same. 

/me makes with a funny face at you, in case you care.

[The Old Hack 2,448]

 

1 minute ago, mlooney said:

2 minutes ago, Pharaoh RutinTutin said:

How do we do above seas that are gentle and calm?

About the same. 

/me makes with a funny face at you, in case you care.

Cut the Pharaoh some slack. Those are the only seas he knows how to cope with. He hasn't invented the keel, you see.

[ijuin 572]

Humans are great for long distances--what other species would run for over 26 miles at a stretch just for sport? But for distances of a mile or two, most large quadrupeds will leave us in the dust.

[hkmaly 490]

17 hours ago, mlooney said:

19 hours ago, hkmaly said:

I have my doubts about heavy infantry outruning cavalry.

Roman heavy infantry could, over the course of several days, run down barbarians on horseback.  It's the several days part that you need to take into account. 

Seriously? Whoa.

17 hours ago, mlooney said:

Humans have a longer and faster "medium" speed of any land animal.  We will always get them, assuming we can follow the trail.  A lot of animals have burst speed way faster than humans, but over the long haul we win.  That's why we are the apex predator of the earth surface under about 10,000 ft above mean sea level.

I know. I was writing about that. I just find hard to believe it's still true in heavy infantry armor.